Climate Change Odds Much Worse Than Thought

A new report points to a global temperature rise of at least TWICE the previous esimate.  Rather than a 2.4C rise it could reach as high as 7.4C unless urgent and immediate action is taken now. The wheel on the right depicts researchers’ estimation of the range of probability of potential global temperature change over the next 100 years if no policy change is enacted on curbing greenhouse gas emissions. The wheel on the left assumes that aggressive policy is enacted.

ScienceDaily (May 20, 2009)

— The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth’s climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago - and could be even worse than that. 

Researchers in the field have been saying for some time that the effects of climate change are occurring much faster than labouratory computer models have predicted.  Now, those models are beginning to catch up.  The new projections indicate a surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius (which could reach 7.4 degrees) compared to a increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees.

The important message that comes from this new report is the need for immediate action to prevent a planetary disaster.   Action must come from each of us.  There is no technological ‘magic bullet’ that will save us from disaster.  We as individuals must act to reduce our personal CO2 emissions RIGHT NOW.  We must act as nations to set strict policies to reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.  The time for debate has passed.  Action, urgent action, is needed. 

For details on the scientific report see: Science Daily